Memory estimate
Total = weights + KV cache + 1 GB overhead. Weights = parameters (billions) × bits per weight ÷ 8, in GB. Bits per weight: Q4_K_M ≈ 4.89, Q5_K_M ≈ 5.70, Q8_0 ≈ 8.50, FP16 = 16 (llama.cpp's published figures for Llama 3.1 8B; llama.cpp: quantize README (bits/weight table)). For gpt-oss at Q4 we use 4.25 bits as an approximation of MXFP4 (4-bit values plus a shared scale per block); this is our assumption, not an OpenAI figure.
KV cache = 2 × layers × KV heads × head dimension × 2 bytes × context, for models whose layout we record (Llama 3.x and Llama-based distills). For other models we use a generic 1.5 GB per 8k tokens and flag it.
Fit rules
GPU: fits if total ≤ VRAM − 0.5 GB. Unified memory: we assume 96 of 128 GB (75%) usable on Ryzen AI Max and Mac, 24/48 GB on 32/64 GB Macs, and 120 of 128 GB on DGX Spark. These are planning assumptions; actual limits depend on OS and settings.
Speed ceiling
Tokens/s ceiling = memory bandwidth ÷ bytes of active weights per token. Real speed is lower. We do not present ceilings as benchmarks.
Sources
- NVIDIA: GeForce RTX 5090 specs
- NVIDIA: GeForce RTX 5080 specs
- NVIDIA: GeForce RTX 5070 family specs
- NVIDIA: GeForce RTX 5060 family specs
- NVIDIA Newsroom (Jan 2025): RTX 5090/5080/5070 Ti/5070 pricing
- NVIDIA Newsroom (Apr 2025): RTX 5060 family pricing
- NVIDIA: GeForce RTX 4090 specs
- NVIDIA Newsroom (Sep 2022): RTX 40 Series pricing
- NVIDIA: GeForce RTX 3090 specs
- NVIDIA Newsroom (Sep 2020): RTX 30 Series pricing
- Wikipedia: GeForce RTX 50 series (memory bandwidth table)
- Wikipedia: GeForce RTX 40 series (memory bandwidth table)
- Wikipedia: GeForce RTX 30 series (memory bandwidth table)
- AMD: Ryzen AI Max+ 395 specifications
- NVIDIA: DGX Spark product page and specs
- NVIDIA Developer Forums: DGX Spark price change announcement (Feb 2026)
- Apple: Mac mini technical specifications
- Apple: Mac Studio technical specifications
- GMKtec: EVO-X2 product page (128GB + 1TB variant)
- Minisforum store: MS-S1 MAX 128GB (128GB + 2TB variant)
- Beelink US: GTR9 Pro product page
- Framework: Framework Desktop
- Corsair: AI Workstation 300 (CS-9080003-NA, 128GB)
- Hugging Face: meta-llama/Llama-3.1-8B
- Hugging Face: meta-llama/Llama-3.1-405B
- Hugging Face: meta-llama/Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct
- Hugging Face: Qwen3 model cards (e.g. Qwen/Qwen3-30B-A3B)
- Hugging Face: openai/gpt-oss-120b model card
- Google: Gemma 3 model card
- Hugging Face: deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1 model card
- llama.cpp: quantize README (bits/weight table)
- Ollama
- LM Studio
- Microsoft Learn: Copilot+ PCs developer guide
- TrendForce press release (30 Sep 2026): 4Q26 memory contract price outlook
- Intel: Thunderbolt messaging guide (bandwidth claims)
- ChargerLAB/OCuLink.net: what OCuLink products work with external graphics cards
- TechPowerUp: OCuLink vs Thunderbolt 5 eGPU testing (reporting Try Some Tech)
Accessed 21 Oct 2026. Retail prices are dated listings and change often.
